EPL 23/24 PREDICTIONS

A big part of coaching is prediction, how will a transfer, manager, tactic work out? Every year I have a bet with my Dad and good friend Josh to see how well we can predict the Premier League table. I start with the previous seasons table then I look at three main factors that could change a clubs fortunes; manager turnover, transfers and change in European competition commitments from last season to this one.

There are four clubs that changed managers from existing Premier League sides (Tottenham, Chelsea, Wolves & Bournemouth). There are also three new managers from the Championship. From both groups six only joined their respective clubs during last season so are going in to their first full season . If the new manager is better relatively or I think they will improve the squad they have with more time in their first full season (or rare instances second full season) this gives them a positive grade.

With transfers I am taking in to account a few factors such as; quality, age, experience and positional need. For the squad, standing still is considered moving backwards as many managers including Ferguson and Guardiola have both said. Other teams catch up, your players get a year older, a little bit more comfortable etc. A quote from Pep at the start of last season after letting Fernandinho, Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko go " But, at the same time, somtimes its good to change to refresh everyone - the new players, the old players. And its normal the new players bring in new energy, new desires. ''

Finally we have European football, the more games you have that you didn’t have last year the more rotation you will have to do which will negatively impact the team. Newcastle for example made some of the fewest changes which they will not have the luxury to do this season. Inversely if you have less games to play this leaves more time for training, less injuries and a greater chance of picking the best 11 for Premier League matches. You can see in the following article the trend between consistency and over performance. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/epl-consistency-2023/