EPL 23/24 POUNDS VS PENCE 11
Half of all transfers fail! No matter what your gut, your head coach, data analysts or Barry down the pub tells you there are no sure things when it comes to transfers. Watch the video below for the full explanation but six common reasons a transfer could fail are
1. Player not as good as originally thought
2. Player doesn’t fit the style
3. Played out of position
4. Manager does not like them
5. Fitness/personal issues
6. Current player is better
Even at 90% confidence for all of these it only works out to approximately 53% chance overall, this is due to probabilities being multiplied, not added together and averaged. Think about a coin flip, one flip gives us two outcomes or two options with 50% chance each. Flipping it twice gives four possibilities with 25% chance each or 0.5 times 0.5=0.25.
All of that being said a big part of team success comes from transfers so you better get them right as a manager. Especially in England where the role of the sporting director is more foreign. In Germany their word is trainer not manager as the responsibilities are split. The purpose of this article is twofold
1- To see how well I can predict whether a transfer will work out
2- To see if I can be more successful with less money (a great trait for a manager to have)
Team 1 is the most expensive 11 bought this summer in to the Premier League and cost an astronomical 673.9 million pounds. Team 2, my penny pinching team will be less than or equal to half of that but I am allowed a loan player, a youth breakout player and a player signed previous who has not yet played for their Premier League club. There can also be no crossover with my team and the expensive 11. Not only do I think that more of my second team will be viewed as a success but I think at the end of the season the majority of people will agree that it would beat team one. I do slightly have the benefit of hindsight as I have seen some of these players play a few games for their new teams but I had to wait til the window was closed to confirm the first team. The second team was mostly built as the signings came in with gaps being filled at the end. Even with this slight benefit I have to consider all six of those main factors, the hardest one being trying to get in to the managers' minds, as well as accounting for manager turnover which just seems to go up and up every year so having a few game sample size on the new players is a very small grace.
